Morgan Stanley strategists have cautioned that Bitcoin may be entering the “fall season” of its four-year market cycle, a phase that typically precedes an extended downturn.
Key Takeaways:
- Morgan Stanley warns Bitcoin has entered its “fall season,” advising investors to take profits before a potential crypto winter.
- Bitcoin’s drop below its 365-day moving average and stalled liquidity inflows signal weakening market momentum.
- Despite near-term caution, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong.
The bank’s wealth management team is advising investors to take profits while prices remain elevated, warning that a potential “crypto winter” could follow.
Morgan Stanley Strategist Says Bitcoin Entering ‘Fall Season,’ Time to Take Profits
Speaking on the Crypto Goes Mainstream podcast, Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said Bitcoin’s historical performance follows a repeating “three-up, one-down” pattern.
“We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo explained. “Fall is the time for harvest — it’s when you want to take your gains. The question is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”
The comments come as Bitcoin’s price momentum softens.
On Nov. 5, Bitcoin fell below $99,000, breaking under its 365-day moving average, a key technical support level used by traders to gauge long-term sentiment.
CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno noted that the drop signaled a shift in market tone, while Bitrue analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima called it “a confirmation of a technical bear market.”
Adding to the cautious sentiment, crypto market maker Wintermute said market liquidity has stalled, with inflows from stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and digital asset treasuries plateauing.
The firm noted that these three components have been the primary drivers of crypto market depth since early 2025, but recent months have shown declining activity.
Despite near-term headwinds, institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow.
Michael Cyprys, head of US brokers, asset managers, and exchanges at Morgan Stanley Research, said that large investors increasingly view Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a potential hedge against inflation and currency debasement.
“Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as a macro hedge,” Cyprys said, adding that ETFs have made access easier.
However, he noted that institutional allocations move slowly due to regulatory processes and long-term mandates.
According to SoSoValue data, US spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold more than $137 billion in total assets, with Ether ETFs accounting for an additional $22.4 billion.
Analysts say this growing institutional exposure could temper volatility even as the market enters its cyclical slowdown.
Bitcoin Stuck Between $106K–$116K as Long-Term Holders Dump and Volatility Fades
Bitcoin’s typical November rally looks increasingly unlikely this year, as the market faces persistent selling pressure from long-term holders and fading institutional demand.
The asset has been locked in a narrow range between $106,000 and $116,000 for two weeks following October’s sharp sell-off, signaling investor hesitation and a broader consolidation phase.
Bitfinex’s latest market report shows that long-term holders have ramped up distribution to 104,000 BTC per month, the most aggressive selling since mid-July.
Analysts warn that unless ETF inflows or new spot demand pick up, Bitcoin may remain range-bound, with downside risk toward $106,000 or even $100,000.
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