The CLARITY Act could be signed into law in the week of Aug. 3 if Congress keeps pace after a bipartisan Senate Banking Committee vote moved the crypto market structure bill into its next phase, Galaxy Digital’s research arm said.
Galaxy Research raised its estimate of the bill’s chances of becoming law in 2026 to 75% after the committee voted 15-9 on May 14 to advance the legislation.
The vote gave the long-running digital asset bill its most significant Senate breakthrough so far, though the timeline remains narrow and several political disputes remain unresolved.
The bill now moves into a more complicated stretch, in which the Senate Banking Committee text must be combined with a version advanced by the Senate Agriculture Committee before Senate leaders can bring the measure to the floor.
If it clears the Senate, lawmakers would still need to reconcile it with the House version before sending final legislation to President Donald Trump.
That process leaves little room for delay. Congress has only a limited number of working weeks before the August recess, and major legislation often becomes harder to move once lawmakers return in a midterm election year.
Bipartisan vote gives the bill a path forward
The Senate Banking vote marked a shift for a bill that had been at risk of advancing on a party-line basis. All Republicans on the committee backed the measure, while Democratic Sens. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland joined them to move the bill forward.
Notably, both Democrats warned their committee votes did not guarantee support when the bill reached the Senate floor.
That distinction will shape the next round of negotiations. A committee vote can move legislation forward, but a Senate floor vote carries a higher threshold in practice because supporters will need enough Democratic backing to overcome procedural hurdles.
The late support from Gallego and Alsobrooks followed negotiations during the markup, where lawmakers added a package of amendments from Sen. Cynthia Lummis. Several Democrats supported parts of that compromise, even though only Gallego and Alsobrooks ultimately voted to advance the bill.
The result gave crypto policy advocates a bipartisan outcome after months of talks, but it also showed how thin the margin remains.
The bill has moved past one major obstacle, while the votes needed for final passage are still being assembled.
Ethics demands move to the center of talks
The next phase is expected to turn on the ethics language sought by Democrats.
Gallego and Alsobrooks have pressed for restrictions that would limit senior government officials and their family members from profiting from, promoting, or holding certain interests in digital assets while federal crypto rules are being written.
Those demands come as Democrats have increased scrutiny of political conflicts tied to crypto activity. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a renowned crypto skeptic, had even argued against the bill because it “doesn’t lift even the tiniest finger to address the Trump Administration’s crypto-related corruption.”
Considering this, the Galaxy analysts said the ethics issue is the most important unresolved point for securing Democratic support. The firm expects some version of an ethics amendment to be offered later in the process, likely during Senate floor debate.
Meanwhile, other disputed areas remain in play, including decentralized finance provisions and the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. Law enforcement-focused lawmakers have raised concerns that parts of the bill could limit oversight of decentralized protocols, validators, or other infrastructure providers.
Galaxy said those issues could still be negotiated, though an ethics compromise may be enough to keep the bill moving even without broader changes to DeFi language.
The calendar is now the biggest constraint
Galaxy’s projected timeline would require Senate Banking and Senate Agriculture negotiators to begin reconciling their CLARITY Act versions in early June and complete that work quickly. Senate floor consideration would then need to start around mid-June, with final Senate passage before the end of that month.
That would leave July for House-Senate negotiations and final votes on a reconciled measure. Under Galaxy’s timeline, the House could pass the final version in late July, allowing Trump to sign the CLARITY Act bill during the week of Aug. 3.
Meanwhile, the White House is already pushing for a faster schedule.
Patrick Witt, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, previously said the administration was targeting July 4 for congressional passage of the CLARITY Act, a goal that would require an even tighter sequence of Senate and House action.
Galaxy’s August target appears more forgiving than the White House’s Independence Day goal, but it still depends on lawmakers avoiding delays in committee reconciliation, floor scheduling, and final House negotiations.
That floor debate could take about a week, according to Galaxy’s analysis. Any extended fight over ethics, DeFi, stablecoin rewards, or anti-money laundering provisions could push the bill closer to the recess deadline.
Credit: Source link