Quick Read
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SPY gained 16% while bitcoin ETF holders endured a 54% crash and MSTR shares collapsed 60% over the past year.
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NVIDIA is now SPY’s largest holding at 7.58%, effectively turning the index into a concentrated AI infrastructure bet.
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The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5% in September 2026, threatening the rate-sensitive mega-caps that drive roughly a third of SPY.
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Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas praised bitcoin ETF holders for holding through a brutal drawdown, noting that lifetime cumulative net flows sit at $55 billion, down from a peak of $63 billion but up from a low of $50 billion. He called it “incredible intestinal fortitude from the Boomers given they saw a 50% drawdown”. But the scoreboard tells a different story. While retirees clung to their bitcoin ETFs, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) rose 15.5% over the past year, meaning the loyalty being praised kept those investors out of the best broad-market stretch in a decade.
Boomer Loyalty Trade That Missed the Rally
Bitcoin traded as high as $126,296 in October 2025 and as low as $57,717 in July 2026, a peak-to-trough drop of roughly 54%. It is down 34.4% over the past year and last changed hands near $76,850. MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), the closest listed proxy for concentrated bitcoin exposure, has been hit harder: shares are down 60.5% over the past year at $132. Meanwhile SPY sits at $762, up 11.8% year to date.
Macro Factor That Matters Most: 10-Year Yield
For SPY over the next 12 months, the single most important variable is the long end of the Treasury curve. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% on September 15, 2026, a 99.6 percentile reading against the past year and up from 3.97% in February. The Fed funds upper bound moved to 4% on September 17, reversing part of the easing cycle that carried equities higher earlier this year.
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Roughly a third of SPY sits in mega-cap growth names whose valuations are most sensitive to the discount rate. A sustained move above 5% on the 10-year would pressure those multiples first. The fundamental question is whether the Fed tolerates yields at this level or resumes cutting to protect growth. History rhymes: the last time yields punched through 5% in late 2023, SPY dropped roughly 10% in eight weeks before Powell’s pivot rescued it.