Many crypto investors are anticipating a full-blown altcoin season where many altcoins outperform Bitcoin altogether. This sentiment is revealed through different outlooks, especially now that the Bitcoin dominance has risen to a major rejection zone. However, Bitcoin dominance is telling a different story.
Notably, Bitcoin dominance has broken back above the 63.96% region and is approaching a critical zone around 64.45%. According to crypto analyst Rekt Capital, a close above this level could suppress any hopes of an altcoin season.
Bitcoin Dominance Pushes Toward Key Historical Threshold
Bitcoin’s dominance over the crypto market has continued to rage on, even during its price correction, which has highlighted most of April’s price action. As it stands, the Bitcoin dominance is now at levels last seen in 2021, during the height of the bull rally. How it plays out here could determine the fate of an altcoin season.
What makes the current Bitcoin dominance interesting is the consistency and duration of the trend. After breaking out of a multi-year downward channel in 2023, Bitcoin dominance has been riding a clean uptrend, supported by a strong ascending trendline. The most recent retest of the 57.68% to 59% area, marked by a black circle in the monthly BTC dominance chart below, has caused a new surge that now threatens to transform the 64% region from resistance into support.
This was highlighted in a post on X, where Rekt Capital noted that the dominance is now at its highest level not seen since early 2021. Now, the onus is on whether Bitcoin’s dominance manages to close the month of April above the 64% level, and especially if it flips the level into support on a retest, as it could delay or even suppress the strength of an altcoin rally.
He explained that in such a scenario, Bitcoin’s dominance uptrend would be reinforced and would likely target the next historical resistance zone near 71%, a level last reached in 2019. Such an extension in Bitcoin dominance would naturally come at the expense of altcoin market share. In short, the longer Bitcoin is dominant, the smaller the window for an altcoin season.
Short-Term Altcoin Window Still Possible
Rekt Capital acknowledged that a brief altcoin window could still come up if Bitcoin dominance begins to fluctuate near the 64% region. However, he warned that such a period would be marked by high volatility and likely be short-lived. At the time of writing, Bitcoin dominance is at 63.2%, having recently reached a year-high of 63.6% in the past 24 hours.
A decisive monthly close in the next few days could determine the broader market structure heading into May. Altcoin holders hoping for a major rally may want to watch this chart more than any individual crypto setup, because if Bitcoin continues to dominate, the window for altcoins could be narrowing fast.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
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