The global crypto market slipped nearly 4% on Wednesday, even as Asian equities edged higher, supported by optimism that the US is close to ending its record-breaking government shutdown.
Traders remained cautious, with sentiment subdued across digital assets. Open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures dropped sharply from $94b to $68b, while funding rates stayed flat and Bitcoin ETFs in the US saw only $1m in net inflows.
Bitcoin traded below its 200-day moving average of $110,000, facing resistance near that level and support around $103,000. If selling pressure intensifies, analysts see the next support range between $86,000 and $82,000.
Market snapshot
- Bitcoin: $103,305, down 3.5%
- Ether: $3,438, down 5.2%
- XRP: $2.40, down 5.6%
- Total crypto market cap: $3.56 trillion, down 3.5%
Traders Eye Washington Vote As Shutdown Nears End And Data Remains Sparse
Since early October, the Bitcoin market has lost about $340b in capitalization, lagging gold and tech stocks despite their recent rebounds. George Mandres, senior trader at XBTO Trading, said large holders have been reducing positions, adding to weaker ETF inflows and selling from corporate treasuries.
Across traditional markets, MSCI’s Asia ex-Japan index inched up 0.1% in early trade, as members of the US House of Representatives prepared to vote on a bill restoring federal funding. The measure, already approved by the Senate, could end a shutdown that began on Oct. 1 and is now the longest in US history.
In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2% overnight to a record close, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3%. The S&P 500 futures were steady in early Asia. Traders focused on limited data available during the shutdown, including an ADP report showing private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs a week in the four weeks ending Oct. 25.
Soft Labor Data Strengthens Bets On Fed Rate Cut In December Meeting
The muted labor reading pushed investors to raise bets on monetary easing. Futures markets now price a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 meeting, up from 62% a day earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
The US dollar index slipped 0.2% to 99.45, its weakest level this month, reflecting softer sentiment on the greenback as traders position for potential easing.
Gold extended gains after surging nearly 3% overnight to trade comfortably above $4,100 in Asian hours, supported by lower yields and renewed risk appetite in equities.
Analysts See Weak Conviction In Crypto Until ETF Inflows Pick Up
In contrast, Bitcoin failed to capitalize on the broader move into risk assets. The largest cryptocurrency traded near $105,000, struggling to reclaim key technical levels. Analysts say market conviction will remain weak until on-chain accumulation or ETF inflows signal a stronger shift in demand.
President Donald Trump warned late Tuesday that a court ruling against his use of emergency powers for tariffs could threaten both economic stability and national security. His comments added another layer of uncertainty to markets already adjusting to the shutdown’s prolonged effects.
With Washington nearing a resolution, traders expect volatility to ease across risk assets. However, crypto markets may take longer to recover, with investors still cautious after weeks of heavy selling and liquidity drain.
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