The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D), which measures BTC’s share of the total crypto market capitalization, is approaching a critical point where the market could be preparing for a dramatic rotation into the long-anticipated altcoin season. A recent technical analysis, backed by historical patterns, indicates that BTC’s current lead could soon fade, resulting in a potential market explosion.
Bitcoin Dominance Reveals Timeline For Next Altcoin Season
According to a chart analysis shared by crypto analyst Astronomer on X (formerly Twitter), a steady decline in Bitcoin Dominance is expected to trigger the start of an altcoin season explosion. Technical projections on the BTC.D weekly chart indicate that Bitcoin Dominance may complete a three-drive phase before collapsing toward key Fibonacci retracement zones.
For more clarity, BTC.D is expected to decline through multiple key levels, starting with a 50% psychological level, then 48%, before potentially breaking down to the pivot zone at 40.68%, and finally to the bottom point at 36.03%. Based on Astronomer’s analysis, altcoin momentum historically begins to ramp up once BTC.D falls below the 50% mark, with accelerated gains and explosive performance seen between 46% and 40%.
This forecast echoes the October-November 2023 price behavior, where traders doubted the initial rally, only to witness a strong explosion shortly after. A similar sentiment shift is expected this cycle, especially with the recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price and the unstable market.
Moving forward, the analyst believes that the market is still on track for a big Bitcoin price breakout, possibly in late spring or early summer. This breakout is expected to trigger an altcoin pump soon.
Until that happens, Bitcoin will likely keep moving up slowly, dragging BTC.D with it until it tops out and falls. In his post, Astronomer declared that the BTC price has already hit a bottom, meaning any delays to the start of the altcoin season are mostly time-related and not price-related.
BTC.D Possible Fakeout To Open Path To Alt Season
The Bitcoin Dominance has recently hit a resistance zone between 67% and 70%. This resistance zone could determine the potential of an altcoin season this bull cycle.
The resistance zone, identified in the chart analysis as a Quarterly Breaker Open, has historically marked the top for Bitcoin Dominance before altcoins take over. After briefly entering this zone, BTC.D experienced a sharp reversal and is currently sitting around 64.62%. The rejection from this level aligns with the theory that the recent Bitcoin-led rally was a potential “fake breakout” — a move that mirrors strength before a strong rejection.
Astronomer revealed that he expected BTC to rise and sweep the “wick,” which happened—and in doing so, it also pushed BTC.D higher. However, once BTC.D spikes and begins to decline, following the pattern of fakeouts, it could signal the start of the altcoin season, where alternative coins begin to outperform Bitcoin.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
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