Bitcoin’s volatility isn’t gone, and it could still fall by as much as half its value, according to Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine.
Key Takeaways:
- BitMine chair Tom Lee warned that Bitcoin could still see 50% drawdowns, despite growing institutional adoption.
- Lee said Bitcoin continues to mirror the stock market, often amplifying equity market moves by double.
- While cautioning about volatility, Lee remains bullish long-term, predicting Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 this year.
Speaking in an interview with Anthony Pompliano published Thursday, Lee said he expects “50% drawdowns” to remain part of Bitcoin’s price history, even as institutional adoption grows.
Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Still Mirrors Stock Market, Warns of 40% Drops
His comments come amid rising optimism that Bitcoin’s price swings have softened thanks to spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional participation.
However, Lee cautioned that Bitcoin continues to move in tandem with traditional markets, and tends to amplify those moves.
“The stock market has more frequent 25% drawdowns,” he said. “So if the S&P is down 20%, Bitcoin could be down 40%.”
Lee added that while the broader economy has matured in recent years, Bitcoin’s correlation with equities means sharp corrections are still likely.
Despite that, he remains long-term bullish. On the Bankless podcast earlier this month, Lee repeated his prediction that Bitcoin could climb to $200,000–$250,000 by the end of the year.
A 50% drop from those levels would put Bitcoin back near $125,000, roughly its current all-time high.
On the other hand, if Bitcoin has already peaked for this cycle, as some analysts who follow the traditional four-year cycle argue, a 50% decline from its current price of around $110,000 would push it down to roughly $55,000, levels not seen since September 2024, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently issued a similar warning, comparing Bitcoin’s chart to the soybean market of the 1970s, which crashed by half after a massive rally.
Historical precedent supports the risk: after hitting $69,000 in November 2021, Bitcoin plunged nearly 50% to $35,000 in just three months.
Still, not everyone agrees with the bearish outlook. MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor said in June that the era of deep crypto winters is over: “Winter is not coming back.”
Lee, meanwhile, believes Bitcoin may be entering a “longer cycle,” one that could reshape how investors think about both its rallies and inevitable corrections.
Tom Lee Doubles Down on Ethereum as DAT Bubble Shows Signs of Bursting
As reported, Lee has reaffirmed his bullish stance on Ethereum (ETH), revealing a $1.5 billion purchase following last weekend’s market crash.
Despite warning that digital asset treasuries (DATs) are trading below their net asset value (NAV), suggesting a potential bubble burst, Lee told Fortune he views the pullback as a long-term buying opportunity.
Lee’s move was mirrored by BitMine Immersion Technologies, which accumulated 379,271 ETH worth roughly $1.5 billion across three major purchases this week, according to data from Arkham Intelligence.
The mining firm now holds over 3 million ETH, or 2.5% of the total supply, making it one of the largest corporate holders of Ether.
BitMine reportedly aims to control 5% of all ETH in circulation, positioning itself as a key player in the Ethereum ecosystem.
Speaking with Cathie Wood, Lee compared Ethereum’s future to how Wall Street shifted from gold to equities after 1971, arguing that ETH could eventually “flip Bitcoin” as the dominant store of value.
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