Historic 2020 Liquidity Trend Flashes Again – Analysts Tip Bitcoin for $120K Breakout

A rare liquidity pattern that has historically appeared ahead of every major Bitcoin rally is flashing again, prompting analysts to forecast another strong uptrend that could propel BTC toward $120,000 in the coming months.

According to CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) and exchange reserve data are now mirroring the same conditions last seen in 2020, 2021, and mid-2024, periods that all preceded powerful Bitcoin breakouts to new all-time highs.

“When stablecoin reserves reach extreme levels relative to Bitcoin’s market cap, the market historically doesn’t stay quiet for long,” Moreno noted in his latest analysis shared with investors.

Bitcoin Liquidity Signal Reaches Historic Range

Moreno explained that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the market cap of all stablecoins, has once again dropped into its lower historical range near 13.

This level, he said, has reliably marked accumulation zones and market bottoms in past cycles.

“Each time SSR has returned to this zone, Bitcoin was trading quietly before staging a strong rebound,” he wrote, describing the pattern as a “liquidity configuration that has only appeared a handful of times since 2020.”

Further supporting the bullish observation, Moreno pointed to data from Binance, where stablecoin reserves are rising while BTC reserves continue to decline.

This divergence, he said, suggests “latent buying power waiting to be deployed“, a trend that typically emerges during phases of seller exhaustion and structural capitulation, when “weak hands exit and strong hands begin to accumulate quietly.“

“From a risk/reward perspective, these moments tend to offer asymmetric opportunities: downside appears limited, while upside expands as liquidity rotates back into BTC,” Moreno added.

Falling Wedge Forms as Bitcoin Coils for $120K Move

Complementing the liquidity narrative, market technician Bitcoinsesus observed that Bitcoin is currently coiling within a falling wedge pattern, a setup that often precedes sharp bullish reversals.

“A breakout above $106,000 could trigger a strong move toward $120,000 or higher,” he said.

Farzam Ehsani, co-founder and CEO of VALR, also told Cryptonews that the easing macroeconomic uncertainty in support of positive on-chain signs could sustain capital inflows into the crypto market.

“The macro uncertainty that loomed over markets in recent weeks finally seems to be easing, opening the pathway for a broader rebound,” Ehsani said.

“For the crypto markets, where liquidity and capital inflows had thinned significantly, the return of confidence signals a potential inflection point in the current cycle.”

VALR CEO Says Next Week’s CPI Data Key for $120K Breakout

Ehsani pointed out that progress toward resolving the U.S. government shutdown and the President’s plan to distribute $2,000 checks using tariff proceeds have already helped lift the crypto market by 4.5% in the past 24 hours.

He cautioned, however, that the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release could determine whether the rally sustains or stalls.

“The CPI data could be the last tailwind for the market’s recovery or the next headwind that triggers a sell-off,” he said.

VALR CEO cautioned that sticky inflation might push the Fed back toward a hawkish stance, which could slow liquidity inflows and temper Bitcoin’s rally to $120k.

However, with Bitcoin currently testing the $106K–$110K zone, Eshani believes a strong breakout and sustained close above this range could confirm a new bullish cycle.

“A decisive reclaim of this range could mark the beginning of a new upside and open the door for BTC to retest its previous highs and even head higher toward $130,000 before year-end, especially if ETF inflows pick up again.”

As Moreno summarized, the current market phase doesn’t feel exciting, but historically, it’s where strong hands start building positions.

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