In October 2021, Mark Zuckerberg stood in front of an audience to inform us that his company, Facebook, would pivot to the metaverse. The newly-named Meta would move away from social media to deliver a new focus on AR/VR experiences. Zuckerberg was clearly excited about the transformative disruption of his vision, claiming that we would one day work, socialize, and play in virtual spaces. Meta, he claimed, would pour billions into the concept, and for a hot minute, investors were on board with the idea, too.
Yet, almost three years later, much of the buzz around the metaverse has died down. Indeed, if you want to secure investment for your technology startup, you’d be advised to use the phrase “artificial intelligence”. Using “metaverse” in your pitch is probably a good way to get laughed out of the room. That said, the idea isn’t wholly dead yet, and we should also be clear that two years isn’t always a long time in technology. But it’s safe to say that the metaverse was the revolution that never happened.
Entertainment is the natural partner for the metaverse
On the face of it, looking back on October 2021, you can understand some of the excitement around the concept. We were still in a pandemic, so when someone floated the idea of seeing your doctor in a virtual room instead of in person, it made sense. Entertainment was also an easy sell. For example, it was not a great leap to see yourself playing poker or blackjack at an online casino in a metaverse-style setting: You could take a seat virtually, look your opponent in the eye, and start playing. Movies could be more immersive, too, and companies like Apple and Meta have gone some way to showcase how you could experience cinema in a new way.
Yet, looking back, there was a fundamental flaw in the analysis of this. Namely, an over-exaggeration of the desire for humans to immerse themselves in any given situation. Sure, the idea of seeing a doctor in the metaverse seems logical, and there is some societal merit, particularly for people who are housebound. But that represents a small subsection of society, mostly older folks, most of whom would be uncomfortable with the idea of strapping on a headset to enter a virtual medical facility. Even in areas of entertainment like movies, there is the question of strapping a device to your face. For many of us, it’s a hard pass.
Vision Pro sales targets have been slashed
The addition of the headset is an important one. When Apple released its Vision Pro AR headset in June 2023, we were told that this would be a metaverse lite experience. As Apple usually does, the showcase of Vision Pro was impressive, but the reality was more prosaic. Users soon complained about the heaviness of the headset, as well as the bother of carrying around a battery pack. Apple has some very loyal customers, so sales were initially bullish, but forecasters have slashed sales predictions for 2024. The question is simple: who among us who are not technophiles would decide to pay $3000 for such a device?
Some experts have claimed that the concept of the metaverse is simply ahead of its time. While we talked of metaverse casinos earlier, the truth is that the architecture for such an experience is arguably years aways, and those virtual doctor appointments are further away still. While that is the promise of the metaverse, what we get now is rather more prosaic. Many of the ‘environments’ that we explore using AR/VR headsets are simply repetitive and dull.
There is arguably some merit in metaverse gaming experiences, and you get the sense that Meta has been concentrating more on that than Zuckerberg’s grander vision of late. Yet, it is also struggling to convince us that gaming isn’t something you do with your hands and eyes when looking at a screen. Sony PlayStation has been trying to flog VR headsets for years, and, aside from a small minority, players still seem to prefer the traditional ways to play video games.
Some experts claim that we are simply waiting for the “killer app,” an application that becomes so ubiquitously popular that an AR/VR headset becomes the must-have gadget. Perhaps it will be a game like Pokémon Go or some kind of social app. Yet, pinning the hopes of a revolution on an app that has not yet been invented shows to what extent the metaverse revolution has stuttered. As late as 1999, people were calling the internet a passing fad, so there is time yet for Zuckerberg and co to prove us wrong. But if this is a revolution ahead of its time, there is still a lot to do to capture the imagination of ordinary folks.
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